Mongolian Futures: Scenarios for a Landlocked State

During the decades of the USSR, the Mongolian People’s Republic was a somnolent client of Moscow with only token relations with the West. After the break with the Soviet Union in 1990, and democratization under the 1992 constitution, Mongolia has sought to become a Modern Sovereign NationState (MSNS) within the global community, and has pursued policies and built institutions which are not coordinated with either Moscow or Beijing. This paper examines some possible scenarios for Mongolia, ranging from best to worst outcomes in terms of national survival. The purpose of this exercise is not prediction, but is a form of analysis to highlight the importance of external events, policy choices, and international supports for Mongolia’s future development and security. It is also an exercise to identify current realities and how these may provide new opportunities as well as hidden dangers.